The EU Agricultural Outlook for Markets and Income 2019-2030

Note to the Reader

This report provides a medium-term outlook for major EU agricultural markets and
agricultural income to 2030. It is based on a set of coherent macroeconomic
assumptions deemed most plausible at the time of the analysis, including the
continuation of current agricultural and trade policies. The analysis relies on
information available at the end of September 2019 for agricultural production and on
an agro-economic model used by the European Commission.
The analysis of a selected set of market uncertainties accompanies this report in order
to quantify the potential for variation in the results. Possible variations stem in
particular from fluctuations in the macroeconomic environment and in yields of the
main crops and milk. Specific scenarios are also presented for plant-based protein
intake, GM-free dairy farming, and the African swine fever outbreak in China.
As part of the preparatory process, an external review of the baseline and the
scenarios around market uncertainties were conducted at an outlook workshop
organised in Brussels on 23-24 October 2019. Valuable input was collected from high level
policy makers, European and international modelling and market experts, private
companies and other stakeholders, and from international organisations such as the
OECD and the FAO.

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"EU protein crops production still on the rise The pulses area is expected to further expand and reach 2.3 million ha in 2030. This represents a 4% annual growth compared to 2019 (3-year average) from the low levels caused by adverse weather conditions. It represents a slight slowdown in growth compared to the 5% growth between 2010 and 2020, which is explained by changes in policies from 2015. A slight yield increase is expected in the long run thanks to improved farming practices, but at a slower pace than the previous decade. This is partly because protein crops are highly sensitive to weather conditions. Total production of pulses should reach 6.3 million t in 2030"