PULSE MARKET UPDATE - September 2024

Commentary
Since the beginning of the year the trade has struggled to get a grip of the likely supply and demand post-harvest 2024. The crop area remains unknown, with many having earlier estimated a fall of 20- 25% and it is still hard to get a clear picture about the national yields. What is increasingly clear however is that UK Pulse crops have out-performed the early pessimistic forecasts initiated by the appallingly wet conditions of the post winter /early spring period. We are reminded of the many growers failing to get their winter beans sown in the autumn, and numerous calls made regarding late drilling in the Spring.
Despite this less than promising start, pulse crops have benefitted from an almost universal lack of water and heat stress in 2024 to deliver much better yield than most would have anticipated.
Although there is always a wide range of individual crop performance there are some huge yields of winter beans in excess of 8.5t/ha being reported. While the spring bean harvest is still a way from completion early indications are very encouraging and peas in general seems to have performed well above the 5-year average, following 2 lacklustre performances. Some large pea crop areas have been reported at well over 5 tonnes per hectare.
So, the trade remains confused but with views on available crop being a little more optimistic.
Looking ahead to crop 2025 serious questions and concern remains around how much the UK pulse crop area will suffer as growers turn to government funded SFI options to give a break in cereal cropping?

UK Pulses

Feed Beans
Earlier the forecast supply has been revised but there is still wide variation in the trade, with estimates from just under 500,000t to more optimistic calls of over 620,000 tonnes. This uncertainty provides opportunity for both buyers and sellers but makes pedicting market direction more complex. Competition from alternative protein sources is intense (including the falling value of soya meal) and is undermining value of domestic protein crops such as feed beans.
Preharvest values have tumbled along with futures and the spot prices of cereals. Ex farm values currently sit at around £215/t. Those having had the confidence to sell forward will likely have made significantly more. At this price the margin over feed wheat is still in the region of £50/t and many are now favouring the view that a traditional expectation of circa £30/t premium over feed wheat should be ignored. Instead they suggest beans are finding their own value among a basket of alternatives.
Even at these new lower values there is currently little interest from the domestic compounders or export buyers. Demand is currently slow and trade somewhat speculative.
 
Export beans for human consumption
There is a little activity emerging in this market, even at the current values.
Opportunities have been limited in recent times due to relatively high domestic feed values and a dearth of visually attractive samples. Bruchid levels in winter beans have been relatively low this year, with the majority of samples seen to date meeting acceptable levels and many winter bean samples have decent size and colour too.  
The market carries significant payment risks in some regions but where buyers embrace export commitment some smaller consignments are now being fulfilled. A premium of  £20-£25/t might be expected over feed.
In recent years the Baltic region has dominated the early Egyptian market demand, supplying early shipments. Two large bulks of over 30,000 tonnes are already committed but it is known that the Baltic region has also suffered badly from Bruchid - the quality is a lot lower than usual. Much of what is being supplied is being bought as feed cargoes for cleaning and splitting on arrival. 
It is thought that the optimum window for UK produce may be October / November – after the early Baltic arrivals have been judged and before the availability of the Australian crop- for which values are still unknown. Availability and quality of the UK Spring crop is eagerly awaited.

UK combining peas
Samples received by the trade to date have generally been of good colour with lower levels of bleaching. Some have presented small size issues and there has been an increase in samples with soaking problems. Soaking issues often disappear after a period of storage – but not always.
In general growers are likely to have been pleased with their crop in 2024 and anecdotally there is already significant interest for 2025. That said the trade is uncertain of immediate supply and their demand for off contract purchases and 2025 contracts will be influenced by this. Most peas are currently grown on contract, with various clauses for quality and values pre-determined. Price indications below refer to produce offered in the free market.

Green peas
Micronisers tend to lead the price for these, demanding the best visual quality. Prices of around £355/t ex farm have been offered.
There is good demand in this sector and the market, having run short ex 2023 crop.
Contracts for crop 2025 are offered on a negotiated ex farm basis of £300/t minimum to £400/t maximum basis or alternatively on fixed prices with bonus options at values in between.

Marrowfat peas
Canadian traders have entered the UK’s traditional export markets in the far east with cheap product of good quality. This is causing issues for UK exporters who are being put under considerable price pressure for supply continuity. That said, the market having been short anyone holding good quality marrowfat peas without bleaching and good cooking qualities is, for the moment, still likely to be offered up to £500/t ex farm.
Contracting for Marrowfat pea production for crop 2025 has largely paused until a more certain picture on availability is realised. If interested speak to your merchant.

Yellow peas
This niche remains under pressure from imports and international trades and is running at a £20-£20/t discount to Green peas, putting the values at around £315- 320/t ex farm. The value of feed peas.
Contracts will be available for 2025 crop but at a low level and those interested now, should contact their merchant directly.

Maple peas
Yields so far are reported to be good. With growers achieving up to 5t/ha. Prices remain quite strong at up to £425/t ex farm.
Crop 2025 contracts are likely to be released it the coming weeks. Contact your merchant if interested at this stage.

Agronomy notes:

Winter Beans : Those seeking to use their own Farm Saved Seed should ensure they have them tested.
Do not use seed that tests positive for Stem Nematode. Details of PGRO seed testing services can be found here:
https://www.pgro.org/seed-testing/

Farm Saved Seed: Frequently asked questions:
https://www.bspb.co.uk/faqs/farm-saved-seed/

PGRO Descriptive List:
The Pulse Crop DL for 2025 will be launched at Crop Tec in November https://www.croptecshow.com/

Agronomy advice:
You first port of call:
https://www.pgro.org/pulse-agronomy-guide/
 
Agronomy advice in your pocket:
The “PGRO Pea and Bean Guide” App.
Download free from the Apple or Google Play stores.
 
Advisory services:
Concerned with crop issues? 

• Send PGRO photos and crop reports from the PGRO App
• Send sick plants to the PGRO plant clinic for diagnosis
• Phone or email PGRO for advice.

The next Pulse Market Update:
October / November 2024