Practice Abstract 64 - Current and future climatic suitability for soybean in Europe

Short title (native language): 
Current and future climatic suitability for soybean in Europe

Short summary for practitioners (native language): 
The European soybean demand is mostly fulfilled by imports. This situation has been questioned because of environmental impacts (e.g. deforestation) associated with soybean production in exporting countries. However, soybean area is rapidly increasing in Europe along with rising demand for locally-produced, non-GM soybean. Assessing European climatic suitability for soybean is thus a key question, although understudied. To fill this gap, we combined two global historical datasets of soybean yield and historical climate data to develop data-driven relationships between key climatic variables and soybean yield using machine learning techniques. Predictive ability of the model was good enough (R² > 0.9) to make reliable projections of soybean yield in Europe.
Projections under historical climate (1981-2010) suggest high climatic suitability for soybean in Europe, revealing large areas (100 Mha) with projected yield ≥ 2 t ha-1 (in 2016, soybean production area in Europe was 5 Mha and average yield 2 t ha- 1). Soybean climatic suitability remains high under climate change with moderate (RCP 4.5) to intense (RCP 8.5) warming, and up to the 2050s and 2090s time horizons, but with a significant shift of suitable areas towards the north-east of Europe. A self-sufficiency level of 50% appears to be achievable in Europe under future climate if 4-5% of the current European cropland is dedicated to soybean production (1.7 % in 2016), although the required soybean expansion would require reductions in the area of other cultivated crop species. These results should be of interest for scientists, but also for decision-making targeted to legume market operators, companies and policy makers.
nicolas.guilpart@agroparistech.fr